Khamis, 17 Mei 2012

13 di bukit besi - Google Blog Search

13 di bukit besi - Google Blog Search

Journey to Wealth: PERWAJA (FV RM1.24 - TRADING BUY <b>...</b>

Posted: 16 May 2012 06:17 PM PDT


Perwaja's 1QFY12 net profit of RM16.2m represents a major turnaround after six consecutive quarters of losses. This can be largely attributed to cheaper iron ore pellets which made its iron-making operations profitable once more. That aside, we also think the major kitchen sinking in 4QFY11 also enabled the group to start the year with  a cleaner book. We expect the delay in the commissioning of its concentration plant to be offset by the favourable spread for DRI. In view of the potentially lucrative margins from the long-awaited mining concession award, we are keeping our Trading BUY call on Perwaja. Our FV of RM1.24 is based on 0.56x FY12 BV or -0.5 standard deviation of its historical trading range plus 10% DCF for its potential iron ore concession.
A  turnaround finally at hand? Perwaja's fortunes swung positively to a net profit of RM16.2m in 1QFY12 compared to a net loss of RM183.7m in 4QFY11. This came in above our original expectation of only marginal profits for full-year FY12. We understand from market  sources that iron ore pellet is currently offered at a relatively smaller premium to iron ore fine prices of approximately USD35 a tonne, compared to a high of USD70 a tonne since early 2012. Since Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) is a direct substitute for scrap metal, their average selling prices (ASPs) are perfectly correlated. If scrap metal prices remain high, so will DRI prices. In light of this, the decent 1Q result could, to a large extent, be attributed to expanded margins for its iron-making operation. Furthermore, we also think the kitchen-sinking exercise in 4QFY11 also allows Perwaja to start the year with a cleaner book.
Upstream makeover still in progress… While we continue to think Perwaja is poised to secure the lucrative iron ore mining concession at Bukit Besi, Terengganu, we have yet to see any official award by the state government. Meanwhile, Perwaja has also started constructing its iron ore concentration and pelletization plant. The concentration plant likely to be commissioned in July 2012, which is slightly behind our original projection. Furthermore, with the plant expected to experience some technical hiccups during the initial stages of commissioning, we have recently revised down contributions from this plant in FY12. Meanwhile, we are excited over the boost to Perwaja's earnings coming from cheaper iron ore pellets, more so with the DRI selling price remaining at reasonably high levels. This could easily compensate for the potential lower earnings generated by the new plant. Since we reckon the sustainability of cheap iron ore pellets is also a key determinant of whether  the  iron makers' margins could  be  sustained moving forward, we prefer not to be overly bullish on Perwaja's latest results until it secures the lucrative mining concession from the Terengganu state government.

Journey to Wealth: KINSTEL (FV RM0.49 - NEUTRAL) 1QFY12 <b>...</b>

Posted: 16 May 2012 06:15 PM PDT


Kinsteel posted a  net profit of RM10.3m in 1QFY12 as its  upstream operations turned around  on the back of cheaper iron pellets feed, which  boosted margin. The positive start for the year  was  also attributed to contribution  from  its downstream operation, which saw  healthy sales. Although we expect  its  rolling margin to remain stable, we have recently  cut  our volume assumption on expectation of physical steel demand picking up only in 2013 as the market shifts its focus to the next General Election. Although this will be compensated by better margin from  its  upstream op as the spread gets more  favorable, we  are staying NEUTRAL on Kinsteel. Our Fair Value of RM0.49 is derived from 0.73x FY12 BV, or -0.5 standard deviation of its historical trading range.
Positive start. Kinsteel posted a net profit of RM10.3m in 1QFY12, a sharp reversal from the previous six consecutive quarters of losses, which was mainly dragged down by poor performance at its upstream operation via 37%-owned Perwaja. At last, the narrowing of the premium of iron ore pellets over fine from USD70-plus to USD35 per tonne due to the the fall in  iron ore pellets price,  helped Kinsteel's  iron-making  unit  chalk  up a  profit as Direct Reduced iron (DRI) selling prices benchmarked  against  scrap metal price remained relatively high. Furthermore,  Kinsteel's downstream rolling mills  – which typically enjoyed stable albeit low margins - also generated a profit of RM6.6m during the period due to healthy sales but partially offset by its Gurun plant's RM4.6m loss in 1Q.
Is there hope for an upstream makeover? We  still think that Perwaja will  secure the iron ore mining concession at Bukit Besi, Terengganu,  although the state government has yet to officially award it. Perwaja is also building a concentration and pelletizing plant which it hopes will boost its profitability. Meanwhile, we understand there is some delay in the target date for commissioning while its concentration plant may start trial run in July 2012. This  aside, there are generally no major concerns over Kinsteel's downstream operation due to its stable margin, although there is caution over near term demand.
Maintain NEUTRAL. We are not pinning too much hope on this business since the implementation of mega projects under the ETP may encounter delays. Thus, we have recently trimmed our rolling volume. However, our estimates for Kinsteel are largely unchanged as we expect the better iron-making margin from cheaper iron ore pellets to more than compensate for the negative impact arising from  the  potential delay in the commissioning of the concentration and pelletization plant at Perwaja. Meanwhile, we are relieved  that  Kinsteel  has  returned to the black, but prefer to keep our NEUTRAL call,  with an  unchanged Fair Value of RM0.49,  derived from 0.73x FY12 BV, or  -0.5 standard deviation of its historical trading range.

English Campaign Peringkat PKG <b>Bukit Besi</b> ~ SEKOLAH <b>...</b>

Posted: 12 May 2012 06:56 AM PDT

English Campaign Peringkat PKG Bukit Besi dimana SK Bukit Besi telah menjadi tuan rumah bagi tahun 2012.



























































Dicatat oleh di

Tiada ulasan:

Catat Ulasan

Langgan: Catat Ulasan (Atom)

ads